Mea faʻaopoopo · Lisi e faitau · 8 minute

Tusi e uiga i le rūleti: o se lisi e faitau

O tusi ma pepa e uiga i le rūleti e faʻavae ai lenei upegatafaʻilagi, e luasefulu ma le lua, mai se tusi o le 1657 e uiga i le faʻamoemoe e oʻo i se tusi aʻoga o le 2025, ma se fuaiupu e tasi e uiga i le mafuaʻaga e tāua ai taʻitasi.

Tali puʻupuʻu

O le matematika (Huygens, Bernoulli, Halmos, Feller, Thorp, Epstein, Ethier, ma tusi aʻoga lata mai a Bollman, Taylor ma Hunacek), le talafaʻasolopito (Lablée, Barnhart, Schwartz, Kavanagh, Marcus, Goldman), le saienisi (Bass, Small & Tse) ma le tala fatu e tasi e sili atu nai lo i latou uma (Dostoevsky). O mea uma i lenei upegatafaʻilagi e faʻavae i lenei fata tusi.

sili ona tuai
Huygens, 1657
sili ona fou
Hunacek, 2025
tusi e tasi e sili ona lelei
Ethier, 2010
tala fatu e sili ona lelei
The Gambler, 1866

Matematika

galuegatausagaaisea e faitau ai
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae1657o le faʻamatalaga muamua na lomia e uiga i le faʻamoemoe; o le mea na sau ai le EV
Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi1713le tulafono o numera tetele, lea e lē malamalama ai faiga
Halmos, “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations”1939le faʻamaoniga lautele muamua e leai se faiga peti e suia ai le iʻuga faʻamoemoeina
Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory, vol. 11968leiloa uma o le tagata taʻalo tupe, savaliga faʻafuaseʻi, faʻasologa; o le tusi faʻasino masani
Thorp, “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games”1969le taimi e mafai ai e faiga peti ona fesoasoani (na o se taʻaloga e lelei mo le tagata taʻalo) ma tuʻutuʻuga o loʻo i tua o le iʻuga e leai se faiga
Thorp, The Mathematics of Gambling1984le komepiuta rūleti na faʻamatalaina e lē na fatuina, faʻatasi ma le numera o le tele o le peti pe a i ai se tulaga lelei
Epstein, The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic2013 (lomiga lona 2)ua suʻesuʻeina taʻaloga uma o le kasino; o le rūleti i lona tulaga
Ethier, The Doctrine of Chances2010o le faʻamatalaga faʻamatematika sili ona atoatoa o le rūleti ua lomia
Bollman, Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games2021peti faʻaopoopo, uili ese ma le rūleti kata ua faitau o latou tau taʻitasi, faʻatasi ma faʻamalositino
Taylor, Games, Gambling, and Probability2021 (lomiga lona 2)faʻasologa, peti Kelly ma le leiloa uma o le tagata taʻalo tupe ua faia o se kosi
Bollman, Basic Gambling Mathematics2024 (lomiga lona 2)faʻalauiloaga ma toe faʻafoʻi tupe a kasino, ma le vave e toe totogi ai e se laupapa o iʻuga lona tau mo le kasino
Hunacek, Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling2025o se kosi muamua faigofie; siaki lona faʻamatalaga e tutusa le tau faʻamoemoeina o peti uma, lea e lē saʻo ai le peti numera e lima

Talafaʻasolopito

galuegatausagaaisea e faitau ai
Lablée, La Roulette, ou le Jour1801o le faʻamatalaga atoa muamua o le taʻaloga, i se tala fatu
Barnhart, Beating the Wheel1992le talafaʻasolopito o le taʻalo i uili faʻaituʻau: Jagger, ē na muamua atu i le aiga Pelayo, auala
Schwartz, Roll the Bones2006le talafaʻasolopito lautele o le taʻalo tupe; le tulaga o le rūleti i ai
Kavanagh, Dice, Cards, Wheels2005aganuʻu o le taʻalo tupe a Farani; le Palais-Royal ma taulaga vai vevela
Marcus, American Roulette2003o le peti ina ua uma le iʻuga ua faʻamatalaina mai totonu e le tagata sili ona lauiloa na faia
Goldman, Great Gambling Scams2007Leigh i Nice, Marcus ma le Ritz ua toe faʻamatalaina; e malie, ae sese i ni mea moni (tagaʻi i le Taufaʻasese i le rūleti)

Saienisi ma le taʻalo e saili ai le tulaga lelei

galuegatausagaaisea e faitau ai
Bass, The Eudaemonic Pie1985le tala o le komepiuta i totonu o se seʻevae; o le tusi lauiloa sili ona lelei i le saienisi o le rūleti
Small & Tse, “Predicting the outcome of roulette”2012le saienisi o le vavalo, ua fuaina; mea e manaʻomia e maua ai se tulaga lelei
Pearson, “On the criterion…”1900le suʻega chi-square, ua faʻaalia i taʻamilo o le rūleti

Saienisi o le uili rūleti

Le tala fatu

Dostoevsky, The Gambler (1866). Na tusia i aso e 26 ina ia oʻo i le aso faʻagata o se konekarate ma se tagata lomitusi, e se tusitala na loloto i aitalafu mai le rūleti; o le sese a le tagata taʻalo tupe, le faiga, le lē mafai ona taofi ma le kasino i le taulaga vai vevela mai totonu. E puʻupuʻu atu nai lo so o se tusi rūleti o loʻo i luga ma e sili atu ona moni nai lo le tele.

Bad Homburg ma kasino o taulaga vai vevelaLe Roulettenburg a Dostoevsky

Tusi rūleti e sili ona lelei mo mafuaʻaga taʻitasi

Mo le numera, Ethier ona sosoʻo ai lea ma Feller. Mo tala, Barnhart ma Bass. Mo le mafuaʻaga e taʻalo ai pea tagata, Dostoevsky. Mo le faʻamaoniga e faʻaiʻu ai finauga uma e uiga i faiga, Halmos, ma mo le iʻuga lava lea i ni upu faigofie, le tusi a Thorp o le 1984. Mo faʻamalositino, Taylor po o Bollman. O le pusa o punaʻoa i itulau taʻitasi o lenei upegatafaʻilagi e siʻi mai lenei fata tusi.

Fesili

E i ai ni tusi lelei e uiga i fuafuaga rūleti?

E leai se tasi e faʻatau atu se faiga. O le tusi a Thorp o le 1984 e i ai se mataupu puʻupuʻu e uiga i le mafuaʻaga e lē aogā ai; o Epstein ma Ethier e faʻamatala ai le foliga o taʻitasi.

O fea e mafai ona ou faitau ai Pearson po o Huygens?

E leʻo toe puipuia i le tulafono o le puletaofia ma o loʻo i luga o le initaneti. E mafiafia Pearson; e puʻupuʻu Huygens ma e faigofie ona faitau i se faʻaliliuga, e ofo ai.

Sina mea malie

O mea uma i lenei upegatafaʻilagi o se faʻamatalaga faʻaopoopo i lenei fata tusi.

O mea uma i lenei upegatafaʻilagi o se faʻamatalaga faʻaopoopo i lenei fata tusi.

Punaʻoa

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Mataupu 13, rūleti.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, lomiga lona 3, 1968. Leiloa uma o le tagata taʻalo tupe, mataupu XIV.
  3. Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.” Duke Mathematical Journal 5(2), 1939.
  4. Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.” Review of the International Statistical Institute 37(3), 1969.
  5. Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling. Gambling Times / Lyle Stuart, 1984.
  6. Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie. Houghton Mifflin, 1985.
  7. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1992.
  8. Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette. CRC Press, 2021. Mataupu 2, rūleti.
  9. Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2024.
  10. Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2021.
  11. Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2025.
  12. Marcus, R. American Roulette: How I Turned the Odds Upside Down. St. Martin’s Press, 2003.
  13. Goldman, N. Great Gambling Scams. John Blake, 2007.
E uiga ia i matouPunaʻoaTalafaʻasolopito ma aganuʻuRūleti i tusitusigaTalafaʻasolopito ma aganuʻuTalafaʻasolopito o faiga rūletiTalafaʻasolopito ma aganuʻuThe Eudaemons
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